Week 1 of the NFL season had been very profitable for UNDER bettors, until the tide turned three years ago. From 2003-10, Week 1 games produced a 50-77-1 O/U mark. UNDERS cashed at a 61 percent rate. But since 2011, Week 1 has produced a 29-18-1 O/U record, a 62 percent cash rate for OVERS.
Look for the OVER trend to continue this year. Teams have not adjusted to the strict enforcement of illegal contact and defensive holding, and we’re seeing an avalanche of flags crippling defenses during the preseason.
Fifty-six illegal contact flags have been called through two weeks of the preseason, compared to 54 all of last exhibition season! Officials say they will call it the same way in the regular season.
Week 1 lines: Spreads and totals from Las Vegas
Here’s a division-by-division breakdown of some key betting trends.
- NFC West: The Cardinals are 12-7-1 ATS (63.2 percent) as a road dog and 19-12-1 ATS (61.3 percent) as a dog overall over the past three years. … The OVER is 16-8-1 (66.7 percent) in Arizona’s games vs. the AFC since 2008.
Under coach Jeff Fisher, the OVER is 13-7 (65 percent) in Rams games outside the division. … The UNDER is 8-4 (66.7 percent) in Rams’ division games over the same span.
The Seahawks are a ridiculous 24-9-1 ATS (72.7 percent) in non-division games over the past three years. … The UNDER is 16-8-1 (66.7 percent) in Seahawks’ division games in the Pete Carroll era.
Under coach Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers are an astounding 27-8-2 ATS (77.1 percent) in non-division games. … They are 10-4-1 ATS (71.4 percent) as road dogs over that span. … Under Harbaugh, San Fran is 8-3 ATS (72.7 percent) off a loss and has covered in those games (including ATS losses) by an average of 6.4 points.
- NFC East: The Giants are 16-23-2 ATS (41 percent) at home since 2009. … The UNDER is 12-4 (75 percent) in Giants road games since 2012.
The Cowboys are 10-27-1 ATS (27 percent) as favorites since 2010. … The OVER is 25-16 (60.9 percent) in Cowboys home games since 2009.
The Redskins are 15-9 ATS (62.5 percent) in divisional games since 2010. … The UNDER is 16-7-1 (69.6 percent) in Washington’s division games over that same span.
The Eagles are 14-28 ATS (33.3 percent) in non-division games since 2010. … The OVER is 27-15 (64.3 percent) in Philly’s non-division games over that same span.
- NFC South: The OVER is 14-8-1 (63.6 percent) in Falcons’ games since 2010 when Atlanta is coming off a loss. … Atlanta is 30-22-2 ATS (57.7 percent) as a favorite since 2009.
The Panthers are 9-4-1 ATS (69.2 percent) as home favorites since 2011. … The UNDER is 13-4 since 2010 when the Panthers are home faves.
The Buccaneers are 14-21-1 ATS (40 percent) vs. NFC teams since 2011.
The Saints are 33-14 ATS (70.2 percent) as home favorites since 2008. … The OVER is 20-10 (66.7 percent) in New Orleans’ division games since 2009.
- NFC North: The Bears are 11-20-1 ATS (35.5 percent) over the past two years. … The OVER is 21-11 (65.6 percent) in Bears games the past two years.
The Lions are 13-23-1 ATS (36.1 percent) vs. NFC teams since 2011. … The OVER is 39-24-2 (61.9 percent) in Detroit’s games since 2010.
The Packers are 20-11 ATS (64.5 percent) as home favorites since 2010. … The OVER is 21-12 (63.6 percent) in Packers’ games since 2011.
The Vikings are 7-16 ATS (30.4 percent) after a win since 2010.
- AFC West: The Broncos are 20-10-1 ATS (66.7 percent) as a favorite in the Peyton Manning era. … The OVER is an incredible 19-4 (82.6 percent) in Denver’s non-division games over the same two-year span.
The Chargers are 11-5-1 ATS (68.8 percent) as road dogs since 2010.
The Chiefs are 14-6 ATS (70 percent) vs. NFC teams since 2009. … The UNDER is 23-10 (69.7 percent) in Kansas City home games since 2010.
Since 2009, the Raiders are 8-19-1 ATS (29.6 percent) following a win.
- AFC South: The Colts are 22-13 ATS (62.9 percent) with Andrew Luck at quarterback. … The UNDER is 7-3 (70 percent) since 2012 when the Colts are coming off a loss.
The Titans are 22-35-3 ATS (38.6 percent) vs. AFC foes since 2009. … The OVER is 7-2 (77.8 percent) the past two years when Tennessee is a home dog.
The Jaguars are 9-21 ATS (30 percent) in non-division games since 2011. … The UNDER is 19-12 (61.3 percent) in Jacksonville’s home games since 2010.
The Texans produced a 5-1 O/U mark (83.3 percent) when playing as the favorite last year.
- AFC East: The Patriots are 9-4 ATS (69.2 percent) since 2010 off a loss. … The OVER is 27-11 (71.1 percent) in New England’s home games since 2010.
Under Rex Ryan, the OVER is 28-16-1 (63.6 percent) in Jets road games.
The Bills are 3-13-1 ATS (18.8 percent) after a win since 2011. … The Bills are 5-15-1 ATS (25 percent) as road dogs over that same span.
The Dolphins are 29-18-1 ATS (61.7 percent) in road games since 2008. … The UNDER is 16-8 (66.7 percent) in Dolphins road games since 2011.
- AFC North: The Steelers are 16-8-1 (66.7 percent) in division games since 2010. … The UNDER is 22-12 (64.7 percent) in Pittsburgh’s home games over that same span.
The Bengals are 8-2-2 ATS (80 percent) vs. NFC foes since 2011.
The Browns are 6-13-1 (31.6 percent) vs. NFC foes since 2009. … The UNDER is 46-32-2 (59 percent) in Browns home games over the past decade.
The Ravens are 9-4 ATS (69.2 percent) in the playoffs since 2008. … The OVER is 9-4 (69.2 percent) in Baltimore’s games vs. the NFC since 2011.
Also in this series…
Part 1: Bettors shape the market
Part 2: Over/Unders
Part 3: Valuable coaching trends
Part 4: Best/worst home-field advantage
Part 5: Which offenses have improved, who has regressed?
Part 6: NFL’s worst defenses
Part 7: Goings on at the SuperBook
Part 8: Ranking the divisions
Fantasy Source draft strategy: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs
