- The biggest Week 1 line move has come in Saints at Falcons. Atlanta opened as a 1.5-point favorite at MGM Resorts, and now the Saints are laying 2.5.
“It will probably hit 3 before it’s done,” Jay Rood, VP of race and sports, told The Linemakers on Sporting News. “The teams have looked like polar opposites. The Saints have looked really good in the preseason and the Falcons have looked horrible.”
William Hill also opened the game Falcons -1.5 and moved to Saints -2. Nick Bogdanovich, the company’s director of trading, agreed with Rood that this line is headed to 3.
- Panthers-Bucs also is on the move. MGM Resorts opened at Tampa Bay -1, and the game moved to Carolina -1, before being taken off the board because of Cam Newton’s uncertain status. The Panthers quarterback has a hairline fracture in one of his ribs and was walking gingerly early this week. He did not practice Sunday or Monday. The best guess is Newton plays at less than 100 percent and runs less than he normally would.
Live odds: Updated Week 1 point spreads and totals
- Sam Bradford’s latest torn ACL had varying impacts at Vegas books. The LVH moved the Rams’ lines significantly, cutting them from 6- to 3.5-point home favorites in Week 1 vs. Minnesota, and raising their Super Bowl futures from 40-to-1 to 75-to-1.
But William Hill cut its Week 1 line from -6 to only -4.5 and didn’t change the Rams’ 50-to-1 odds to win the Super Bowl.
“Sam Bradford never has reached his potential in this league,” Bogdanovich said. “Shaun Hill is a decent backup. Their defense and running game are good, so I don’t think there’s much of a dropoff.”
- MGM Resorts boosted the Rams from 35-to-1 to 50-to-1 to win it all. The book took down the Week 1 game, with Rood saying he’ll probably hang Rams -3.5 as opposed to -6.
“It’s difficult because we don’t have a large sample size to gauge (Bradford’s) impact,” Rood said. “Last year they played better with him in there, and he looked pretty good from what we saw this summer. Obviously he’s not elite, but worth maybe 2.5 points to that offense."
Team that has drawn the most money to win the Super Bowl: Seahawks at both MGM Resorts and William Hill.
Teams that have had the most tickets written on them to win the Super Bowl: 49ers at William Hill, Packers at MGM Resorts.
Worst possible result for books: William Hill took a ton of Raiders and Vikings money. Oakland has been slashed from 150-to-1 to 75-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, while Minnesota has fallen from 80-to-1 to 60-to-1.
MGM Resorts also took oodles of Raiders money and has cut Oakland from 100-to-1 all the way to 40-to-1.
“They bet the Raiders like they bet the Cubs,” Rood said. “That would be pretty ugly for us.”
- Bettors are loading up on the Saints. At William Hill, “they’re betting OVER 9.5 regular-season wins like it’s going out of style,” Bogdanovich said.
He opened New Orleans at 9.5 (OVER -150) and now it’s 9.5 (OVER -210).
“I probably should have used the number 10, but I like to use half-numbers so we get a decision,” Bogdanovich said. “And once we get married to a number, we usually stick to it.”
Bettors also jumped on the Saints to win the NFC (opened 9-to-1, now 7-to-1) and the Super Bowl (opened 20-to-1, now 15-to-1).
“Sean Payton is a helluva coach, Drew Brees looked good in the third preseason game, and they’ve added a weapon or two,” Bogdanovich said.
- Books cautious with totals. Despite the avalanche of illegal contact and defensive holding flags, Rood said he doesn’t plan to be “too aggressive right out of the gate” in pushing totals higher than normal.
“It will certainly affect totals if they keep calling it like they have been,” he said. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see the average total bump up to 45 or 45-plus, instead of 43.5, 44. Scoring has been climbing steadily, and that’s just the strategy of the league.”
But Rood wants to see it in the regular season first before making big adjustments.
- Biggest movers: Thanks to the Johnny Football phenomenon, the Browns were bet down at MGM Resorts from 200-to-1 to 25-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. Carolina is going the other direction, rising from 15-to-1 to 45-to-1.
The Panthers went 12-4 last year and return one of the league’s top defenses, but “a lot of people are not really giving them much of a chance,” Rood said.
Also in this series…
Part 1: Bettors shape the market
Part 2: Over/Unders
Part 3: Valuable coaching trends
Part 4: Best/worst home-field advantage
Part 5: Which offenses have improved, who has regressed?
Part 6: NFL’s worst defenses
Part 7: Goings on at the SuperBook
Part 8: Ranking the divisions
Part 9: Profitable trends
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