- When will the lines go up? (Expected weekly release times for NFL and college football at Nevada sports books. All times PT.)
Aliante NFL: 10 a.m., Monday NCAAF: By 12 p.m., Monday
CG Technologies NFL: 3-5 p.m., Sunday NCAAF: 3-5 p.m., Sunday
Caesars NFL: Approximately 11 a.m., Monday NCAAF: Approximately 11 a.m., Monday
Coast Casinos (Orleans) NFL: By noon, Monday NCAAF: By noon, Monday
LVH SuperBook NFL: 4:30 p.m., Sunday NCAAF: 12 p.m., Monday*Advance lines on the following week’s NFL games will be posted on Tuesdays.
MGM NFL: 12 p.m., Monday NCAAF: 12 p.m., Monday
South Point NFL: 11 a.m., Monday NCAAF: 11 a.m., Monday
Stratosphere NFL: Approximately 5:30 p.m., Sunday NCAAF: Approximately 5:30 p.m., Sunday
Station Casinos NFL: 12 p.m., Monday NCAAF: 12 p.m., Monday
Treasure Island NFL: 10 a.m., Monday NCAAF: 10 a.m., Monday
William Hill NFL: 5:30 p.m., Sunday NCAAF: 10 a.m., Monday
Wynn NFL: 5 p.m. PT, Sunday NCAAF: 3 p.m. PT, Sunday
- Braxton Miller reaction
Sports books were inundated with action on the Buckeyes, before star senior quarterback Braxton Miller was ruled out for the season with a shoulder injury Tuesday. Ohio State had attracted more bets to win the national championship than any other team at both the LVH and William Hill. Only Alabama had attracted more money wagered at the LVH than the Buckeyes.
There were drastic adjustments to Ohio State’s odds. The Buckeyes went from a top-10 favorite to win the national title with odds as low as single digits to 50-to-1 long shots. It’s been a while since an Urban Meyer-coached team has been 50-to-1.
Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading at William Hill U.S., was more cautious with his reaction, noting the Buckeyes’ pillow-soft schedule. Bogdanovich dropped the Buckeyes from 8-to-1 to 22-to-1.
The Orleans moved Ohio State back to 45-to-1.
In the long term, oddsmakers at Las Vegas sports book CG Technologies estimate Braxton Miller is worth 4 points to the line, but added that his value could be as high 6 points in the Buckeyes’ opener against Navy. Ohio State was around a 17.5-point favorite over the Midshipmen, before Miller was ruled out for the season. The line of the Ohio State-Navy began reappearing Wednesday afternoon, with the Buckeyes down to 12-point favorites at William Hill.
According to The Linemakers on Sporting News’ Kenny White, oddsmakers are undervaluing Braxton Miller.
CG, one of the books that took almost all Ohio State bets off the board, reposted the Buckeyes’ season win total Wednesday. Ohio State’s win total was 10.5 (-150 OVER), before the Miller injury, and reopened at 10 (-125 OVER). In relation, CG also moved the juice on the OVER on Michigan State’s win total of 9.5 from -120 to -160.
- Other notable injuries
– Clemson starting running back Zac Brooks, the team’s leading returning rusher, injured his foot this week in practice and has been ruled out for the season.
– Kansas lost its top two running backs, Brandon Bourbon and Taylor Cox, to season-ending injuries.
– Auburn lost starting offensive lineman Alex Koza for the season to a back injury. Starting DE Carl Lawson is out indefinitely with an ACL injury.
– Mississippi State lost starting senior offensive lineman Damien Robinson for the season to an ACL injury.
– Florida lost touted freshman defensive tackle Thomas Holley for the season to a torn labrum in his hip.
– Duke lost starting tight end Braxton Deaver for the season to an ACL injury. The Blue Devils also lost starting middle linebacker Kelby Brown to an ACL injury. Starting running back Jela Duncan will miss the season for academic reasons.
– Appalachian State starting running back Marcus Cox is battling a knee injury leading up to the opener against Michigan.
– Kent State leading rusher Trayion Durham has had multiple surgeries on his foot in the offseason and has been hampered.
- Biggest liabilities at William Hill’s Nevada sports book
The Oklahoma Sooners and UCLA Bruins would do some damage to William Hill with a championship run.
“Those are the two real bad ones,” Bogdanovich said. “We’ve taken the most money on them.”
- Three long shots William Hill does not want to see win the national title
Auburn went from 1,000-1 to the national championship game last season. If it happens again, William Hill is hoping this year’s Cinderella is not TCU, BYU or Virginia Tech.
Bogdanovich said the futures handle on each of those three long shots is in the “thousands” and are liabilities for the book.
“I’m only looking at the total amount bet on those teams,” explained Bogdanovich. “It could have come from an accumulation (of small bets), but there also could a nickel ($500) here or a $300 bet. But those are the three teams with higher odds that we lose pretty good with.”
BYU has gone from 250-1 to 150-1. TCU went from 300-1 to 200-1, and Virginia Tech went from 175-1 to 100-1 at William Hill.
Most bets to win the national championship at LVH SuperBook 1. Ohio State 2. Alabama 3. LSU 4. Michigan State 5. USC
Most money wagered on to win the national championship at LVH SuperBook 1. Alabama 2. Ohio State 3. Oklahoma 4. Auburn 5. Florida State
Biggest line moves in Golden Nugget’s Games of the Year
The Golden Nugget posted point spreads on 200 college football games on June 13. Here are the games that have had the largest line movements:
– Oklahoma at TCU, Oct. 4: The Sooners opened as 14-point favorites, but are now laying only 7.5 points to the Horned Frogs.
– Notre Dame at Florida State, Oct. 18: The Seminoles opened as 24-point favorites, but the line has dropped to -18.5.
– Oregon at California, Friday, Oct. 24: The Ducks opened as 34-point favorites but have been bet down to 28.5-point favorites.
– California at USC, Nov. 13: The Trojans opened as 34-point favorites, but have been bet down to -26.5.
– Central Florida at South Florida, Nov. 28: UCF has shrunk from a 21-point favorite down to a 15.5 point favorite.
– Kansas State at Baylor, Dec. 6: After opening as 6-point favorites, the Bears are now 13-point favorites.
- Biggest climbers and fallers in SuperBook’s national championship odds.
The SuperBook opened betting on who would win the 2015 college football championship game in early January. Every team listed on the SuperBook’s odds has received at least one bet. Here are the teams that have seemed the most movement:
Climbers Georgia: 60-1 to 18-1 South Carolina: 60-1 to 30-1 Auburn: 20-1 to 12-1 TCU: 200-1 to 100-1 UCLA: 20-1 to 10-1 Oklahoma: 12-1 to 7-1 The Field:100-1 to 75-1
Fallers Pittsburgh: 300-1 to 1,000-1 Washington State: 300-1 to 1,000-1 Utah: 300-1 to 1,000-1 Duke: 300-1 to 1,000-1 Vanderbilt: 300-1 to 1,000-1 Ohio State: 12-1 to 50-1 Oklahoma State: 60-1 to 200-1 Notre Dame: 60-1 to 100-1 Texas: 50-1 to 100-1 Arizona: 100-1 to 200-1 Arizona State: 30-1 to 100-1 Stanford: 30-1 to 50-1. Missouri: 60-1 to 100-1. BYU: 100-1 to 300-1 Tennessee: 100-1 to 200-1 Miami, Fla.: 100-1 to 200-1 Virginia Tech: 100-1 to 200-1 Georgia Tech: 300-1 to 500-1 Oregon State 300-1 to 500-1
- This is the 100th thing college football bettors should know. And it’s important.
Nine of 10 sports bettors lose long term. Some say it’s more like 99 of 100. Regardless, odds suggest that you’re not one of the long-term winners. Neither am I.
I couldn’t pick a winner if it was in my nose. My bankroll is miniscule. So is the size of my unit.
With that said, here is my sure-fire, 10,000-star lock of the year to make sure you have a more successful football wagering season: Bet smaller amounts.
The size of your wagers should be two to five percent of your bankroll. Your bankroll should represent an amount of money that you can chuckle about if it’s gone. If your bankroll is $1,000 for the season, you should be betting $20 to $50 per game. Go on a run, and you can increase the size of your unit, but keep it proportionate to your bankroll.
If your ego can handle having a $20 unit on a game, then you probably have a rational perspective on sports betting. Look at it as a form of entertainment, not as a profession. Enjoy the handicapping process, the strategy behind your bets and, of course, the thrill of victory. Enjoy the atmosphere and sounds of the Vegas sports books. But don’t be fooled into believing that sports betting is anything more than a hobby for almost all of us, including me.
Good luck increasing the size of your bankroll and your unit this season.
Also in this series ….
Part 1: Early betting market in Vegas
Part 2: Coaches’ edition
Part 3: Talent edition
Part 4: Which games have seen biggest line moves?
Part 5: A Vegas oddsmaker’s outlook
Part 6: Home-field advantage
Part 7: How much money is wagered on college football?
Part 8: Lessons learned from extreme ATS success, failure
Part 9: Vegas keeps pace with higher scores
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