Kevin Harvick’s win by 0.010 seconds over Carl Edwards in last Sunday’s Phoenix race not only put him in the Chase but it also gave him a share of the points lead with Kyle Busch heading into Fontana, the last race in the sprint West Coast swing.
MORE: Fontana schedule | NASCAR’s closest finishes | More trouble for Truex
That Harvick won is no big surprise. Since his dramatic finish to the Chase in 2014, which produced his first Sprint Cup title, he has been among the series’ top five drivers. His move to Stewart-Haas Racing proven to be the best thing for his career.
But will that last? The recent announcement that SHR will switch from Chevy to Ford created quite a buzz. Tony Stewart has always been a Chevrolet guy and the move to Ford raises questions. Biggest of them is whether Harvick will be around to drive one of those Fords. He too has always been a Chevy guy, so it’s easy to see him jump to another team instead of re-signing with SHR after this season.
Kevin Harvick at Fontana in 2015 (Getty Images)
So there is a level of uncertainty waves around the garage like a flag whipping in the wind. There is a lot of races to be run, and there’s a good chance Harvick will be in the mix for most if not all of them.
MORE: California natives favored at Fontana | Dillon quarrels again with crew chief
Fontana could serve as that next win for Harvick. He’s from nearby Bakersfield, Calif., and has always run well at the track east of Los Angeles, although he only has won once. He finished second last season after Brad Keselowski took the lead when Kurt Busch’s car wobbled just enough for Keselowski to pass him.
Where will we find Harvick on Sunday? Who are some of the drivers we think could come away with a trip to victory lane?
Click here to see the schedule for Fontana. Then check out who we think has the best chance to win Sunday’s Good Sam 500.
Jimmie Johnson
Points standings rank: Third (140 points, 14 behind leader)
Last race: Finished 11th at Phoenix
Last race in Fontana: Finished ninth
Overall at the track: Five wins, 12 top fives, 15 top 10s in 21 career races
It’s his home track (he’s from El Cajon, Calif.), and he is tied for fifth in career wins. But he hasn’t won at Fontana since back-to-back victories in 2009-10. He had four top-10 finishes since then and led 131 laps, including 104 before getting shuffled to the back and finishing 24th in 2014.
Kyle Busch at Fontana in 2014 (Getty Images)
Kyle Busch
Points standings rank: Tied for first (154 points)
Last race: Led 75 laps, finished third at Phoenix
Last race in Fontana: Injured, didn’t race
Overall at the track: Three wins, eight top fives, 12 top 10s in 17 career races
He was the two-time defending champion but couldn’t defend his title in 2015 because of his leg injury. Before that, Busch had finishes of second (2012) and third (2011). With the way he has been racing, he’s an easy pick to win again.
Matt Kenseth
Points standings rank: 16th (90 points, 64 behind leader)
Last race: Finished seventh at Phoenix
Last race in Fontana: Led 43 laps but only finished 31st
Overall at the track: Three wins nine top fives, 15 top 10s in 23 career races
He had his best finish last week in what has been a rocky start to the season. That could provide momentum going to a track where he’s had his ups (three wins but none since 2009) and downs (three finishes of 16th or worse since 2009). That includes last year’s race, where he was in contention until a broken axle late in the race killed his chances to win.
Kevin Harvick
Points standings rank: Tied for first (154 points)
Last race: Led 139 laps, won at Phoenix by 0.01 of a second over Carl Edwards
Last race in Fontana: Led 34 laps, finished second
Overall at the track: One win, five top fives, 10 top 10s in 22 races
You’d expect him to win at Phoenix, which he did for an eighth time in his career. But it was the margin of victory that had everyone talking. Now, going to what is considered his home track he is tied with Kyle Busch for the points lead. Although he hasn’t won at Fontana since 2011, he’s placed fourth (2012) and second (2015).
Brad Keselowski
Points standings rank: 11th (110 points, 44 behind leader)
Last race: Finished 29th at Phoenix
Last race in Fontana: Led the final lap to win the race
Overall at the track: One win, one top five, one top 10 in seven career races
Last week was his worst finish at Phoenix since he was 42nd in 2010. The fact he had been competitive at Phoenix, with eight consecutive finishes of 11th or better since 2012’s spring race, made the outcome a little puzzling. Never fear. He’s coming to a track where his only real success came when he passed Kurt Busch, whose car wobbled at just the wrong time, on the final lap to win last season’s race. So we’ll see if he regains that magic this Sunday.
Kurt Busch
Points standings rank: Fourth (137 points, 17 behind leader)
Last race: Finished sixth at Phoenix
Last race in Fontana: Led race-high 65 laps, finished third
Overall at the track: One win, seven top fives, 12 top tens in 22 career races.
Only Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Matt Kenseth (23 each) have more career races at this track than Busch (teammate Kevin Harvick also has 22 career starts). That experience has paid off as he’s had four straight top-nine finishes since 2012. But he’ll be remembered for the one that got away last season. Despite that, he’s a threat to win.
Kurt Busch (Getty Images)
Carl Edwards
Points standings rank: Fifth (136 points, 18 behind leader)
Last race: Led 65 laps, finished second by 0.10 seconds to Kevin Harvick at Phoenix
Last race in Fontana: Finished 13th
Overall at the track: One win, eight top fives, 14 top 10s in 18 career races
The sting of losing a race at Phoenix by the smallest of margins must stink. But if nothing else, Edwards can take solace that he had a dominating performance and could well have won the race. He’ll try to bounce back at a track where he had four consecutive top-10 finishes until he placed 13th last season.
Austin Dillon
Points standings rank: Eighth (122 points, 32 behind leader)
Last race: Finished ninth at Phoenix
Last race in Fontana: Finished 16th
Overall at the track: No wins, no top fives, no top 10s in two career races
Granted, his finishes at the track are 11th in 2014 and 10th in 2015. However, this team is making noise for its consistency and ability to stay near the front. Maybe it’s far-fetched to think he could win at the track. But Dillon has defied the odds so far.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Points standings rank: 10th (115 points, 39 points behind leader)
Last race: Led 34 laps, finished fifth at Vegas
Last race in Fontana: Finished sixth
Overall at the track: No wins, five top fives, seven top 10s in 23 career races
Bobby Labonte is the only active driver (if you can still call him that) with more career starts (24) without a win at Fontana than Junior. But it’s not like Earnhardt hasn’t been trying. He has two second-place finishes (2013, 2006) and two third-place finishes (2012 and 2001) to his credit. Then again, he also has eight finishes of 32nd or worse.
Joey Logano
Points standings rank: Seventh (127 points, 27 behind leader)
Last race: Finished 18th at Vegas
Last race in Fontana: Finished seventh
Overall at the track: No wins, two top fives, three top 10s in nine career races
He led 41 laps and finished third in 2013, his best performance there. He hasn’t done much at the track since but has performed well at similar tracks. So Sunday could be the day he comes up big in the end.
Our picks to win
Rea White, SN writer
Kyle Busch: Busch not only has four top-five finishes in four races this season, but he has also excelled at Auto Club Speedway. He has three Cup wins at the track, including in 2013 and 2014.
Joe Rodgers, SN writer
Carl Edwards. Fresh off a loss by 0.01 seconds to Kevin Harvick at Phoenix, Carl Edwards has the perfect track in his sights for a revenge win.
Other than Jimmie Johnson, Edwards is the only Cup Series driver with a single-digit average finish at Fontana (8.9). In 18 starts at the Fontana, California race track, Edwards owns one win, eight top fives and 14 top 10s. His 97.1 Auto Club driver rating ranks fourth among active drivers there.
Ray Slover, SN writer
Believe in the law of averages? How about the “due” theory? Heading into Fontana, we have a convergence. Namely, Kyle Busch. Mr. Cup Champ won at Auto Club Speedway in 2014, so he knows how to get it done on the two-mile track. Oh, he also won in 2013 and ‘05 and has 11 top-10 finishes there in 17 races.
Due? Busch started the season with the following results: third, third, fourth, fourth. While that does trend downward, Joe Gibbs Racing cars are among the best this season. Kyle has one of the five (counting ally Martin Truex Jr.) Gibbs cars.
So Busch is the pick for Fontana … or maybe it will be brother Kurt. Hmmm …
Jeff Owens, deputy editor – operations, SN writer
Kyle Busch. The defending champ is off to a hot start with four consecutive top-five finishes to start the season. Now he heads to one of his best tracks, where he won three times, including two of the past three races. The wide, fast track, coupled with a rules package that generates looser racecars, perfectly fits Rowdy’s style. He is primed for his first Cup win of the season after winning three straight Xfinity Series races.
Jason O. Boyd, SN NASCAR contributing writer
Last week I wrote about Kyle Busch’s success and chose him to win at Phoenix. That didn’t work out. So let’s try the same thing with Kevin Harvick. He had enough success at Fontana that getting his second win there should be easier than it will be for most drivers. Overall, he’s had a pretty good run on NASCAR’s West Coast swing. Capping it with a win at Fontana before the Easter break will only strengthen his case as the top driver currently on the circuit.
